Online and high street retailers are facing a tough year ahead, according to the British Retail Consortium.
In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph, BRC director general Stephen Robertson says tax rises and the economic uncertainty is likely to stunt any consumer spending growth.
He added that more people are saving and paying off debts.
The prediction comes despite many retailers posting good Christmas sales figures.
On Tuesday, the BRC is expected to reveal that sales for last month were at least 4% higher than in December 2008.